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Beyond the Discount: The New Rules for Winning Black Friday 2025

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Black Friday is no longer a simple sprint for the deepest discounts. The frantic, one-day doorbuster dash has evolved into a prolonged season of strategic spending, shaped by a consumer who is more resilient, calculated, and digitally savvy than ever before.

For marketers in the EMEA region and beyond, navigating the 2025 holiday season requires a fundamental shift in strategy—away from last-minute promotions and towards an early, always-on, value-centric approach.



The data from 2025 and the retrospective analysis of Black Friday 2024 paint a clear picture: success this year will be defined by understanding the new shopper psyche and the platforms they inhabit.


The New Shopper Psyche: Resilience Meets Strategy


According to research by Richmondfed.org, despite persistent economic pressures, consumer spending has shown remarkable endurance. Year-to-date performance across EMEA shows that retail traffic and transactions are consistently above 2024 levels. However, this isn't a sign of reckless abandon. It’s the hallmark of the "resilient but strategic shopper."


While the Holiday Outlook 2024 by PwC reports a projected 57% of consumers describe their financial situation as "strained," they are actively reallocating funds. A vast majority (85%) plan to cut back on non-essential purchases to enable a "splurge" on valuable holiday gifts. This creates a fascinating market bifurcation—a "tale of two holidays." While nearly 30% of consumers plan to spend less, another 26% (predominantly higher-income earners) are preparing to spend significantly more.


This dynamic explains why Average Order Value (AOV) in EMEA has remained stable; the spending power of affluent consumers is offsetting the price sensitivity of budget-conscious shoppers.


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Black Friday Evolved: More Than Just a Day for Deals


Criteo’s Black Friday and Holiday-Festive Season: Consumer Insights report reveals the key takeaway from Black Friday 2024: it’s no longer just a clearance sale. Today, it’s a high-traffic, high-intent shopping event where consumers are ready to buy—with or without a discount.


"A core finding from 2024 challenges conventional wisdom: in the UK, while discounted watches saw a 361% sales uplift, non-discounted watches still achieved a remarkable 234% increase"

This trend was consistent across major European markets. In France, non-discounted TVs saw a 261% sales lift. This proves that the sheer volume of engaged shoppers creates a powerful opportunity to sell across your entire catalogue. Brands that focus solely on their sale items are leaving significant revenue on the table. The high-intent audience is there to complete planned purchases, making Black Friday a prime time to market full-priced, high-margin products by highlighting quality, longevity, and overall value.


The African E-Commerce Acceleration: Lessons from South Africa


While Europe demonstrates market maturity, South Africa offers a compelling story of rapid digital transformation. Black Friday 2024 was a watershed moment for the nation's retail landscape, marking a decisive pivot to e-commerce.


According to Moonstone Information Refinery financial institutions reported staggering growth in digital transactions that far outpaced in-store activity. FNB, a major South African bank, recorded a 37% increase in e-commerce transaction values and a 76% rise in volumes, while in-store transactions grew by a more modest 10% in value. This was coupled with a massive 59% increase in spending via virtual cards and a 43% rise in digital wallet usage.


For marketers targeting South Africa, the message is clear: the consumer journey is now digital-first. A seamless mobile experience and the integration of diverse digital payment options are no longer advantages—they are prerequisites for success.


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The 2025 Playbook: How to Win the Cyber Season


Translating these insights into action requires a proactive and multi-faceted strategy.


1. Go Early and Stay On


In a recent Business Report article titled Holiday Trends 2025: Why South African consumers are starting their festive shopping earlier, they highlight that the early shopping phenomenon is global. Consumers in EMEA and South Africa alike are starting their holiday research and purchasing as early as August and September to manage their budgets. The strategic imperative is to shift from a concentrated Q4 sprint to a sustained, always-on engagement strategy. Launch pre-sale promotions, offer "sneak peeks," and use AI-driven tools to build lookalike audiences from early shoppers to capture demand well ahead of the peak.


2. Communicate Value, Not Just Price


In an article posted this month demandsage.com shared that, in a market of strategic spenders, your messaging must evolve. Develop a dual-messaging approach. For budget-conscious segments, highlight value-added benefits like free shipping, product bundles, and payment flexibility through "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services, which saw a 9.6% increase in use last season. For higher-income shoppers, focus on product quality, brand heritage, and a premium experience. Use the high-intent Black Friday traffic to run performance campaigns for your full-price heroes alongside your sale promotions.


3. Master the Mobile-First, Omni-channel Journey


Globally, mobile devices accounted for a commanding 69% of all Black Friday 2024 purchases. In a Criteo report titled “6 trends to spark smarter consumer electronics campaigns” they outline that the path to purchase is a complex web spanning social discovery, on-site browsing, and off-site advertising. A full-funnel, omni-channel approach is essential. Combine display and video to capture attention, use multi-retailer campaigns to boost visibility, and deploy AI-driven personalisation to deliver contextual recommendations that cater to the modern shopper's expectations.


The brands that thrive in 2025 will be those that adapt to this new reality, building trust not just with the best deals, but with a consistent, value-driven experience that resonates with today’s highly calculated consumer.


The 2025 holiday season will be won by the brands that move first, understand the data, and connect with the strategic shopper on their terms. This new landscape is complex, but the opportunity for record-breaking success is immense for those who are prepared.

Are you ready to transform these insights into impact?


Let's build a campaign that doesn't just participate in the noise but leads the conversation. 

Chat to 365 Digital about how to maximise your Black Friday success.






Works Cited


  1. Holiday Outlook 2024. PwC. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/consumer-markets/library/holiday-outlook-trends.html

  2. "Spending Growing at a Snail's Pace." Richmond Fed. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2025/spending_growing_at_snails_pace

  3. "Smart signals: 6 trends to spark smarter consumer electronics campaigns." Criteo. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.criteo.com/blog/trends-to-spark-smarter-consumer-electronics-campaigns/

  4. "38 Black Friday Statistics (2024-2025) – $74.4 Billion Online Sales." statistics.blackfriday. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://statistics.blackfriday/

  5. 2024 Holiday Shopping Trends, Statistics & Insights. Adobe. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://business.adobe.com/resources/holiday-shopping-report.html

  6. "17 Black Friday Statistics (2025) – Sales Data & Trends." Demandsage. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.demandsage.com/black-friday-statistics/

  7. "Black Friday 2024: South African shoppers go digital amid record..." Moonstone. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.moonstone.co.za/black-friday-2024-south-african-shoppers-go-digital-amid-record-spending/

  8. "Holiday Trends 2025: Why South African consumers are starting..." Business Report. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://businessreport.co.za/economy/2025-08-22-holiday-trends-2025-why-south-african-consumers-are-starting-their-festive-shopping-earlier/

  9. "South Africans kick off festive shopping earlier each year." Zawya. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/world/africa/south-africans-kick-off-festive-shopping-earlier-each-year-l1qt7lm0

  10. "Black Friday and Holiday-Festive Season: Consumer Insights." Criteo. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.criteo.com/blog/black-friday-and-holiday-festive-season-consumer-insights/

  11. "Unwrapping 2025 holiday shopping trends." Bazaarvoice. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.bazaarvoice.com/blog/unwrapping-2025-holiday-shopping-trends/

  12. "Expected E-commerce Growth for Q4 2024." Enhencer. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://enhencer.com/blog/expected-e-commerce-growth-for-q4-2024

  13. "Q4 2024 Ecommerce insights: Riding the retail rollercoaster to peak performance." CommerceIQ. Accessed August 25, 2025. https://www.commerceiq.ai/blog/q4-2024-trends-report

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